State of Trucking: Preparing for the 2026 Correction

Introduction

As we close out 2025, the freight market is finally showing signs of a "correction." After two years of overcapacity and rock-bottom rates, the pendulum is swinging back. But 2026 will not be business as usual; it will be a flight to quality.

At CTM, we are monitoring three critical shifts that will define the coming year for Shippers and Carriers alike.

1. The "MC Number" Era Ends

October 2025 marked the beginning of the end for the traditional MC Number, as the FMCSA shifts strictly to USDOT identifiers to combat fraud.

• The Impact: "Chameleon carriers" and double-brokering scams are finding it harder to hide. Shippers are scrutinizing carrier credentials more than ever.
• The Lesson: If your paperwork isn't perfect, you don't move the freight. Compliance is now a barrier to entry.

2. Capacity is Finally Tightening

The "exit strategy" for many small carriers has accelerated. High insurance premiums and operational costs have forced thousands to shut down in Q3 and Q4 of 2025.

• What this means: The days of finding unlimited cheap trucks on the spot market are ending. As we head into 2026, shippers relying on load boards will face service failures. Dedicated capacity is becoming king again.

3. The Rates are Stabilizing

While we aren't seeing a massive spike, the "floor" has been hit. Spot rates are edging up as capacity leaves the market. For 2026, expect contract rates to stabilize as carriers refuse to operate at a loss anymore.

Conclusion

The turbulence isn't over, but the direction is clear. 2026 belongs to the carriers who survived the downturn through discipline and assets.